Saturday, January 31, 2004

North Dakota Governor 2004

The Fargo Forum reports (registration required) that Governor John Hoeven (R) has raised $681,000 for his re-election campaign and that it had more than $630,000 on hand. The largest donors were the Republican Governors’ Association ($125,000) and his father Jack Hoeven ($25,000).
His leading Democratic opponent, businessman and former state tourism director Joe Satrom (D), had raised under $15,000 in 2003 and less than $1,000 in 2004. He said Hoeven has an advantage because he's the incumbent. State House Leader Merle Boucher (D) is also considering a run for the governorship but because he did not establish a campaign committee until the mid January, he has nothing to report.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:19 AM |

Endorsement watch

It is expected that Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) will endorse Senator John Kerry later today. The Michigan caucus is February 7 and the AP reports that caucus-goers are "hardest core of political activists" most likely to be swayed by a gubernatorial endorsement. Howard Dean is hoping that he will do well in the northern industrial states (Michigan and Wisconsin) following the February 3 primaries and caucuses and this would certainly be a blow to his hopes to re-start his campaign here.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:06 AM |

Colorado Senate 2004

Former senator (1975-1987) and 1984 and 1988 Democratic presidential nominee hopeful Gary Hart has announced he will not seek the Democratic Senate nomination to challenge Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R). Earlier this month, Campbell charged that Hart would be seeking a Senate seat only to launch another presidential bid in 2008. Earlier this year, he ruled out running for the Democratic presidential nomination after seriously exploring the possibility.
This is the second time Democrats, who consider Campbell vulnerable, have had their leading choice say no to a run. Last year, Rep. Mark Udall (D) said he would seek re-election to the House of Representives rather than challenge Campbell. Reacting to Hart's announcement, Campbell spokeswoman Cinamon Watson said "Another day, another Democrat out of the race." Democrats now hope that Denver Mayor Wellington Webb will run but he appears uninterested in the race. State Democratic officials are hoping that state Senator Dan Grossman of Denver will reconsider his decision not to run. University of Colorado Regent Jim Martin may also be interested in becoming the Democratic nominee. So far the nomination race has attracted relative nobodies (Mike Miles, Brad Freedberg and Larry Johnson).
Democrats see Campbell as one of the few Republican seats that they can take in 2004 but few serious contenders are stepping forward. The Denver Post reports that the experience of state Senator Tom Strickland, who had more than a $5 million war chest against a flagging incumbent (Senator Wayne Allard) in 2002, as one of the reasons for the lack of interest. On election day, Strickland lost by 5 points. In 2004, the Republican senate candidate will also have the advantage of sharing the ballot with a popular Republican president. Furthermore, Campbell raised $565,953 in the last quarter of 2003, bringing his total to $1.8 million. None of his declared opponents have raised more tha $100,000.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:56 AM |

Friday, January 30, 2004

Update

The Missouri Democratic primary post has been updated with additional polling information.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:58 PM |

Delaware Democratic primary

Senator Joseph Lieberman is counting on winning the Delaware primary on February 3, but an American Research Group poll shows that Senator John Kerry is leading there. Kerry leads Lieberman 27%-16% with Howard Dean (14%), Senator John Edwards (9%), Wesley Clark (8%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton (1% each) following behind. Nearly a quarter (24%) of likely primary voters are still undecided. ARG polled 600 likey primary voters January 28-29.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:23 PM |

Dean strategy: focus on the post-February 3 states

Howard Dean seems prepared to write-off the February 3 primaries and caucuses and focus on larger, more liberal and more unionized primaries and caucuses in the two weeks following next Tuesday. He will focus on the Michigan caucus and Washington primary (February 7) and Wisconsin primary (February 17). The Detroit News reports that Dean, while campaigning in the seven February 3 states, will not buy advertising time there. Instead, he hopes to save his resources for vote rich, liberal and nortern states, with an eye to picking up a majority of Michigan's 128 pledged delegates. The Boston Globe reports that Dean is hoping that internet voting, which is allowed in the Michigan caucus, will add a new (and successful) dimension to his campaign. Dean also benefits, it is presumed, from the union backing he has received, most notably the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees which are both distributing ballots on his behalf.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 5:18 PM |

Oklahoma Democratic primary

A Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll of approximately 600 likely primary voters in Oklahoma is one of the few polls that is good news for someone other than Senator John Kerry who is behind retired General Wesley Clark in the state. Clark leads Kerry and Senator John Edwards by 10-points, 27%-17%-17%, followed by Howard Dean (9%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (5%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton (1% each). Nearly one in four (23%) are undecided. Pollster John Zogby said "Oklahoma appears to be Clark's best state, though Kerry and Edwards are not too far behind." He noted that Clark leads among all age groups, whites, those with at least some college education and self-identified conservatives.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:47 PM |

Missouri Democratic primary

A Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll of approximately 600 likely primary voters in Missouri has found Senator John Kerry with a seemingly insurmountable lead. Kerry has 45% support followed by Senator John Edwards (11%), Howard Dean (9%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (4%), retired General Wesley Clark (3%), Al Sharpton (2%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) and one in five respondents undecided. Pollster John Zogby said "If these numbers hold, [Kerry] could emerge with almost every delegate."
An American Research Group poll has the same order at the top: Kerry (46%), Edwards (15%), Dean (7%), Clark (6%), Lieberman (3%), Kucinich and Sharpton (1% each). 6% were uncommitted and 15% undecided. ARG polled 600 likely Missouri primary voters January 28-29. Kerry also has a 72% favourability rating amond Democratic voters.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:41 PM |

South Carolina Democratic primary

According to a post New Hampshire primary Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby International poll of approximately 600 likely South Carolina primary voters, Senator John Edwards and Senator John Kerry are in a race to close to call. Edwards leads Kerry 25%-24% followed by Howard Dean (9%), retired General Wesley Clark (8%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (5%) and Al Sharpton (5%). Nearly one in four respondents (22%) were undecided. Pollster John Zogby said "Edwards and Kerry are running neck and neck, but Edwards must win this state. Edwards appears to be doing well among Independent voters, and NASCAR fans but Kerry is competitive with virtually every other sub-group. Sharpton is barely getting ten percent of African-American voters." Zogby polls in the state has shown Sharpton in single digits whereas some other polls have shown him competitive in the mid-teens.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:37 PM |

Missouri Governor 2004

Missouri Governor Bob Holden is behind in the race for the Democratic Party nomination for governor, trailing State Auditor Claire McCaskill 28%-26% with 41% undecided. The Market Data Specialists of Kansas City poll, conducted for the Kansas City Star and KMBC-TV, found that a majority of Democrats and independents do not approve of Holden's job performance. McCaskill, a two-term state auditor and former prosecutor, is running against Holden's general unpopularity, focusing on his call for tax increases. MDS-KC polled 600 registered voters (including a smattering of Republicans planning to vote in the Democratic primary) January 20-25. The primary is August 3.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:21 PM |

Lousiana Congress 2004

Twelve-term Rep. Billy Tauzin (R) will not likely seek re-election in November. Tauzin was a long-time Democratic politician until he switched parties in 1995, joining Newt Gingrich's Republicans. He eventually became the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, a position he still holds. He said that Republican-imposed term limits for committee chairs was among the factors that led to his decision.
Tauzin also told reporters that he nearly died from a bleeding ulcer last month and that the event has led him to reconsider his future. He turned down a $1 million-a-year job the head of the Motion Picture Association of America; however, he is seriously considering joining the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America as a lobbyist. There is pressure for him not to resign too soon so that Governor Kathleen Blanco (D) could not call an election for March 2, the date of the state's presidential primaries. Republicans know that Democratic turnout will be inflated because of the competitive primary in that party.
With Tauzin out of the picture (so to speak) at the MPAA, a job he was rumoured to be interested in for quite a while, attention is again turned to Louisiana's senior senator and Tauzin's law school room-mate, Senator John Breaux (D).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:37 AM |

Thursday, January 29, 2004

South Carolina Democratic primary

The Columbia State reports that South Carolina is not just the biggest prize in the February 3 primary but a close race between Senators John Kerry (MA) and John Edwards (NC). Former S.C. Democratic Party chairman Dick Harpootlian said "This is a two-man race ... It’s Kerry and Edwards." As recently as two weeks ago it was a four-person race among Edwards, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton and Wesley Clark with Rep. Dick Gephardt ahead of Kerry. But on the heels of big victories in Iowa and New Hampshire and endorsements from Senator Fritz Hollings (D, SC) and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D, SC), Kerry is thought to be seriously contending for the state. A recent American Research Group poll has Kerry in second place (Edwards 21%, Kerry 17%, Sharpton 15%).
A more recent SurveyUSA poll of certain primary voters conducted January 24-26 found Edwards with 32%, followed by Clark (17%), Dean (16%), Kerry (13%), Sharpton (10%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (5%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) and 5% undecided. The poll was commissioned by conducted for WCSC-TV (Charleston, SC), WBTV-TV (Charlotte), WTVD-TV (Raleigh) and WXIA-TV (Atlanta).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:00 PM |

Missouri Democratic primary

In a poll of 812 Missouri Democrats, SurveyUSA found that Senator John Kerry has the support of 41% of likely voters, followed by Senator John Edwards (17%), Howard Dean (16%), Wesley Clark (8%), others (9%) and just 9% undecided. The survey was conducted around the New Hampshire primary (January 26-28) for TV stations in St. Louis and Chicago.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:26 PM |

Lieberman gets newspaper endorsement

The Arizona Republic has endorsed Senator Joseph Lieberman, saying that he fits in the tradition of independent-minded, progressive Democrats the paper has supported in various contests in the past. He is like former Governor Bruce Babbitt, former Senator Dennis DeConcini and Governor Janet Napolitano, a "progressive in the great traditions of their party but unwilling to surrender their intellect and their judgment to a special-interest litany of litmus tests." The paper notes that Lieberman supports educational choice and tax cuts and is the Democrat most serious about facing the challenges abroad.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:22 PM |

Republican 2008 presidential nomination

Kate O'Beirne reports in The Corner that Senator Chuck Hagel (R, NE) "has been meeting with advisers to discuss his prospects for the GOP nomination in 2008." While Hagel has opposed the administration several times, he has a lifetime American Cosnervative Union rating of 85, including a perfect 100 rating for 2003.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:13 PM |

Wednesday, January 28, 2004

Endorsement watch

The Democratic establishment is rallying around Senator John Kerry as he gets two key endorsements. Six-term Rep. Jim Clyburn (D, SC), who had backed Rep. Dick Gephardt, has endorsed Kerry. Clyburn is invariably described as "the dominant black politician in his state." Also, Governor Tom Vilsack (D, IA) has endorsed Kerry. Vilsack remained neutral during the Iowa caucus although his wife campaigned with Kerry throughout the state.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:10 PM |

New Hamsphire primary results II

The final, full results are listed here. Notice that in terms of write-in votes on the Democratic ballot, President George W. Bush (R) beat Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D, NY) by a better than two-to-one margin: 115-54.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:03 PM |

Missouri Democratic primary

A Kansas City Star/KMBC Channel 9 poll conducted by Market Data Specialists before the New Hampshire primary (January 20-25) shows Senator John Kerry with a big lead over his Democratic rivals. Kerry has 25%, followed by Senator John Edwards (9%), Howard Dean (6%), retired General Wesley Clark (3%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (2%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton (1% each). More than a third (35%) of survey respondents were undecided. Even though he has dropped out of the race, Rep. Dick Gephardt received 3% support. His name will appear on the ballot but he has urged supporters to cast votes for other candidates. The poll of 600 respondents included mostly Democrats but also independents and Republicans, all of whom can vote in the Democratic primaries according to Missouri law.
A SurveyUSA poll taken January 9-11 showed Gephardt leading Dean and Clark 37%-19%-15%. The departure of Gephardt, the surprising results in Iowa and the bad week for Dean had have led to a turning upside-down of the recent polls. Missouri's 78 delegates is the largest prize next Tuesday.
Kerry has received the endorsements of former US Rep. Alan Wheat, former US Senators Jean Carnahan and Tom Eagleton (who was also briefly George McGovern's running mate in 1972) and a number of municipal officials including St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay. Edwards was expected to get the backing of former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver but Cleaver backed out of a news conference announcing the endorsement because, he said, he had to visit a sick member of his church.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:18 PM |

New Hampshire Republican primary

Most people forget that the GOP had a primary in New Hampshire also. With 222 of 301 precincts reporting, President George W. Bush won 86% of the vote. He had faced 13 challengers but still scooped up all 32 NH GOP delegates. CNSNews.com reports that Jim Taylor, a Republican who challenged the president from the right, said Bush had turned "his back on conservative values and Republican values" and pointed to the administration's out of control spending. "I am trying to save the Republican Party by reminding us of our core values," said Taylor, who received just 0.2% of the vote.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:50 PM |

Florida Senate 2004

The St. Petersburg Times reports that having missed three bipartisan Senate candidates's forums in the past two weeks, there is speculation that state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd will drop out of the crowded GOP race. The strongest criticism of Byrd came from Democratic Senate candidate Betty Castor's campaign manager Jeff Garcia: "A forum like today's was an important one to be at, and the proof of that is that everyone was there. Busy people with busy schedules took time to attend. This has happened a few times now."
However, with the Florida Senate primary August 31, Byrd says there is lots of time for campaigning later and that right now he is focused on the business of state House. The state House's session ends in April. Furthermore, Byrd has raised more than $1.6 million in the past six months and has approximately $1.3 million on hand.
But other signs indicate he might well drop out. He closed a campaign office in Tallahassee and consolidated his operation in Plant City. This has led to speculation that he might challenge Rep. Mike Bilirakis for the Republican nomination in the 9th Congressional District. Byrd says he will not challenge the incumbent who has held the seat since 1983.
Initial polling shows Byrd is far behind GOP hopefuls Bill McCollum, a former US Congressman and the 2000 Republican Senate candidate, and Mel Martinez, a former federal HUD Secretary and the person presumed to have the support of the White House. Also in the race is Larry Klayman, former New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith and state Senator Dan Webster. Webster is also rumoured to looking at ways of bowing out of the race, although he denies the rumours. He is working on collecting the required 100,000 signatures to be on the statewide primary ballot.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:15 PM |

Veep watch

North Carolina Senator John Edwards still exudes confidence despite the poorer than hoped for showing in New Hampshire yesterday -- 12%, good for fourth but just behind retired General Wesley Clark -- when he was asked on the Today show this morning if he would be the vice presidential candidate under Senator John Kerry. Edwardssaid "No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice president. I'm running for president."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:52 AM |

New Hampshire results

The results of the vote:
Senator John Kerry (38%)
Howard Dean (26%)
Wesley Clark (12%)
Senator John Edwards (12%)
Senator Joseph Lieberman (9%)
Others (2%)

My prediction:
John Kerry - 36%
Howard Dean - 28%
John Edwards - 14%
Wesley Clark - 10%
Joseph Lieberman - 9%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
Al Sharpton - >1%

It doesn't seem like anyone will drop out. The analysis so far is that Dean scored as well as he needed to to keep the hope alive for Deaniacs. Edwards would have liked a better showing but he did well enough to fight another day (in South Carolina), especially considering that he was a distant fourth or fifth in recent weeks.. Clark is hurting and the results probably mean the end of his campaign but he has invested heavily in the February 3 caucus and primary states so despite the disappointing third place finish, he won't drop out. Lieberman says he was part of a "three-way split for third," but more than one wag has described his showing as a third place finish for third place. Kucinich and Sharpton have both said they are in it for the long haul. Clearly Kerry is emerging as the frontrunner, a description that Dean's staff are using when referring to Kerry which may not serve him well in the coming weeks. Former Clinton campaign aides turned unbiased CNN analysts Paul Begala and James Carville both said last night that the race will be decided within a "few weeks" (presumably after the February 10 Michigan caucus and before the March 2 Super Tuesday of New York, Florida, Georgia and California).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:42 AM |

Tuesday, January 27, 2004

Politics makes strange bedfellows

The Washington Times reports in its Inside Politics feature (scroll down to second item) that Republican political operative Roger Stone is an unpaid consultant to the campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Al Sharpton. Stone, who has worked for the presidential campaigns of Nixon, Reagan and Bush I, and is divorced from socially liberal GOP consultant Ann Stone, has worked on some of Sharpton's anti-Dean ads. Stone, who might be working to further the interests of his usual party, said of Sharpton: "Frankly, there has not been a candidate with this much charisma since Ronald Reagan. He is a natural talent. Who else could do the funky chicken on television and get away with it? I don't share his politics. Let's be very clear, if you check the [Federal Election Commission] records, you will see I am supporting George W. Bush. I am a Reagan Republican." While Sharpton admits to talking with Stone, he denies he is an advisor. However, aides to Sharpton told the New York Times that Stone had advised Sharpton before national debates in which the preacher attacked Dean on the issue of race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:43 PM |

Close Democratic race leads to advertising blitz

The Los Angeles Times reports that according to information provided to it by an independent advertising monitor, Democratic presidential candidates spent $3.5 million on TV advertising in New Hampshire during the week that ended on Saturday. (No doubt they also purchased ads for Sunday and Monday.) Dean led spending with $1.15 million (nearly a third and twice as much as his next competitor), underscoring the importance the former Vermont governor has placed on a strong finish there. Kerry spent $600,000 in NH on TV advertising, including one spot that features his endorsements by the League of Conservation Voters, the Concord Monitor and Boston Globe.
Wesley Clark and Senator Joseph Lieberman spent $600,000 in the state in the final week and Senator John Edwards, $425,000. The totals for TV advertising in NH since June 1 are Dean ($2.7 million), Kerry ($2.6 million), Lieberman ($2.2 million) and Edwards and Clark has spent "less than $2 million each."
Says Evan Tracey, COO of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a Virginia-based company that provided the data to the Times, "Dean has obviously taken the New Hampshire-first approach here," running biographical advertising that is "almost like he's trying to start over with a lot of these voters." Another advertising monitor noted that the advertising in NH is generally very positive.
Wesley Clark is spending money not just in New Hampshire but in seven February caucus and primary states, reflecting a broader campaign and, it should be added, a confidence that a poorer than expected finish in the Granite State will not seriously damage his campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:28 PM |

More endorsements

Detroit News columnist George Weeks reports that Michigan Democrats are carefully considering their endorsements for the upcoming state caucus. There are at least four high-profile endorsements worth receiving: Governor Jennifer Granholm, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick and Senators Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow. Weeks notes that endorsements don't mean much, pointing to then Governor John Engler's support of George W. Bush in 2000 (Bush lost the primary to Senator John McCain and the state to Al Gore) and Howard Dean's endorsement by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and former vice president Al Gore in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucus where he fell from a tight two-way race with Rep. Dick Gephardt to a distant third place finish. Considering this history, Weeks says, endorsements from prominent Michigan politicians "would be helpful but not pivotal."
The News columnist said that none of the prominent pols are likely to endorse someone until after the New Hampshire primary and perhaps not until nearer the February 7 caucus. Skeptics might say that Granholm and others will endorse someone they see as likely to win rather than the most qualified. Levin admits the most important qualification is the ability to beat President George W. Bush in the November election.
It seems that Granholm is leaning towards Senator John Kerry or retired General Wesley Clark, as is Levin. In recent weeks, Kerry has picked up the endorsement of former Senator Don Riegle and a slew of former elected municipal officials.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:16 PM |

Endorsement watch

Senator John Kerry is expected to be endorsed by some important Democrats in Missouri today and tomorrow. St. Louis mayor Francis Slay is expected to back the senator today and former Senator Jean Carnahan will announce she is endorsing Kerry on Wednesday.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:58 PM |

South Dakota Congress 2004

The Republicans have picked state Senator Larry Diedrich to run in a special election on June 1 to try to fill the seat vacated by Bill Janklow whose resignation took effect this month after being convicted of second-degree manslaughter following a car accident last summer. Janklow was sentenced to 100 days in jail.
Diedrich, an eight-year state legislator and former president of state and national soybean associations, was picked on the fourth ballot by members of the Republican State Central Committee who were choosing among eight candidates. Diedrich, if he is successful, would serve the final six months of Janklow's term before seeking re-election next November. In June, he will face Democrat Stephanie Herseth, who lost to Janklow in 2002 by a mere 7%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:55 PM |

Wisconsin Congress 2004

Ten-term Rep. Jerry Kleczka (D) will not seek re-election this November, leaving the seat open for only the third time in 56 years. Kleczka is confident that a Democrat will retain the district with covers Milwaukee and some of its suburbs. He said he has become tired of raising money for his campaign, calling it "the most embarrassing thing I've had to do in my life -- calling strangers and begging for money."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:38 PM |

Wisconsin Senate 2004

The Green Bay News Chronicle reports that the Republican primary gained its third entrant as Tim Michels announced he will run. Michels, vice president of a family owned business, is joining state Senator Robert Welch and businessman Russ Darrow, for the opportunity to challenge Senator Russ Feingold (D) who is seeking his third term. Michels has been raising money for several months and has nearly $1 million in the bank, about half of it from his own pockets.
During his official announcement, Michels said that Feingold's liberalism is out of touch with Wisconsin voters and attacked the incumbent for "promoting fringe liberal issues like gay marriage" and opposing the Bush agenda. Michels professes his conservatism: "I'm a conservative guy and conservative candidate because of the way I was raised, because of the things I've done like be on active duty for 12 years, and it's because I work in construction as a family business owner." He is backed by 2000 Republican Senate candidate John Gillespie. Michels has only run for elected office once before, a failed attempt in 1998 for the state Assembly.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:34 PM |

Michigan Democratic caucus

The Michigan caucus will be held February 7 and any poll taken now is likely to be of little predictive value considering the outcomes of today's New Hampshire primary and the seven February 3 caucuses and primaries will winnow down the candidates and boost the fortunes of others. But as it stands, an EPIC/MRA poll finds that Senator John Kerry with a big lead (37%) over Senator John Edwards and Howard Dean (14% each) and retired General Wesley Clark (10%). However, Ed Sarpolus of EPIC/MRA says the January 20-25 survey's small sample size (400 likely caucus voters) means there is a large margin of error.
The Detroit Free Press reports that two weeks ago, "Dean was generally regarded as the front-runner, with Kerry back in the pack and Edwards barely registering among state voters." Another state poll showed Rep. Dick Gephardt in second behind Dean. Gephardt dropped out after finishing a disappointing fouth in Iowa.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:22 PM |

The Dixville Notch primary

Two northern New Hampshire hamlets are the first to cast ballots in the primary, right after midnight on election day. This year, the results after the first votes were cast in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location are General Wesley Clark 14 (votes), Senator John Kerry 8, Senator John Edwards and Howard Dean tied with 4 each and Senator Joseph Lieberman 1.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:52 AM |

Monday, January 26, 2004

New Hampshire predictions

Considering the miserable results of predicting Iowa, Paulitics should be wiser than to try again. But here it goes.
John Kerry - 36%
Howard Dean - 28%
John Edwards - 14%
Wesley Clark - 10%
Joseph Lieberman - 9%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
Al Sharpton - >1%

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:13 PM |

New Hampshire Democratic primary II

Latest polls.
Most recent (January 24-25) CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has it: Senator John Kerry (36%), Howard Dean (25%), Wesley Clark (13%), Senators Joseph Lieberman and John Edwards (10%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton (1%). Just 4% are undecided.
Latest Boston Globe/WBZ poll: Kerry (37%), Dean (17%), Edwards (12%), Clark (11%), Lieberman (7%), Sharpton and Kucinich less than 1% each and 14% undecided.
The latest WMUR-TV tracking poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center has it: Kerry (37%), Dean (22%), Edwards (12%), Clark (11%), Lieberman (10%), Kucinich (2%), others (1%) and undecided (6%).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:07 PM |

Endorsement watch

For all the problems Howard Dean has had in the past week, he picked up another endorsement, that of former Oklahoma Democrat Congressman James R. Jones. Jones, also once an ambassador to Mexico, said Dean is a fiscal conservative and that he is best positioned to bring new voters to the primaries and party. Jones predicted Dean will win the New Hampshire primary and do well in the Oklahoma primary. Dean is in fifth with single digits in Oklahoma according to the latest American Research Group poll.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 4:45 PM |

South Carolina Democratic primary

The latest (January 23-24) American Research Group poll of 600 registered Democrats who say they will definitely vote in the February 3 primary shows Senator John Edwards breaking away from the pack. Edwards stands at 21% followed by Senator John Kerry (17%), Al Sharplton (15%), retired Dean Wesley Clark (14%), Howard Dean (9%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (5%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) and nearly one-in-five (18%) undecided. In the December ARG poll, Dean led Clark and Sharpton 16%-12%-12% with Edwards behind at 8%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:54 AM |

Oklahoma Democratic primary

An American Research Group poll has Howard Dean dropping to fifth and Senators John Kerry and John Edwards rising 15% each in the lastest poll of 600 registered Democrats (January 23-25) who say they will definitely vote in the February 3 primary. Wesley Clark still leads (23%), followed by Edwards (18%), Kerry (17%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (10%), Dean (8%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton tied at 1% and 23% undecided. In December, Dean led with 24%, followed by Clark (21%) and Lieberman (9%). Dean's unfavourable rating is higher than his favourable and only Clark has a favourable rating over 50% (57%) although Kerry is close (49%).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:44 AM |

Arizona Democratic primary

According to an American Research Group poll, John Kerry and retired General Wesley Clark are battling for first in the February 3 primary. Kerry leads Clark 24%-21% followed by Senator John Edwards (15%), Howard Dean (10%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (7%) and nearly one-quarter (23%) undecided. In December, Dean led Clark 26%-15% with Kerry in fifth at 6%. The poll of 600 registered Democrats was conducted January 23-25. The poll also finds that favourable ratings of all the five major candidates except Dean rising since December.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:33 AM |

New Hampshire Democratic primary

The latest tracking polls show John Kerry with incredible momentum following last week's big Iowa victory and an uneventful debate last Thursday. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll found that Kerry led Howard Dean 38%-25%, followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (12%), Wesley Clark (10%) and Senator John Edwards (9%).
The latest American Research Group tracking poll (January 23-25) has Kerry with a larger lead and Edwards and Clark battling for third: Kerry (38%), Dean (20%), Edwards (16%), Clark (15%), Lieberman (5%) and 5% undecided.
The most recent Zogby International tracking poll (January 26) has Dean narrowing the gap: Kerry (31%), Dean (28%), Clark (13%), Edwards (12%), Lieberman (9%), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (2%), Al Sharpton (1%), undecided (3%). In the previous day's Zogby tracking poll, Dean trailed Kerry 30%-23%. The week's Zogby tracking polls also show a small but steady increase for Edwards and a small but steady decrease for Clark.
According to the Gallup poll, Lieberman had a 5% bump that put him as the frontrunner for the coveted third place finish, but this was the only poll to do so. The candidate coined the phrase Joementum to describe his ascendency in this single poll. CNN reported that despite the 13% gap between Kerry and Dean, Dean's free-fall in the polls has ended and that his support seems to have stabilized. Karen Hicks, Dean's New Hampshire state director, said "There's no question that the finish in Iowa was not what we wanted, but we've been working here and feel like we're really on the move."
The latest ARG tracking poll results seem to show Kerry's rising support has hit a ceiling and with Dean on the rebound, from the 15%-16% he polled midweek to 20% on the weekend, just days before the first-in-the-nation primary.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:20 AM |

Los Angeles Mayor 2005

The Los Angeles Times reports that incumbent Mayor James Hahn (D) has announced that he has a $1.3 million campaign war chest, a little more than 13 months ahead of the March 2005 mayoral election. The paper says that Hahn supporters hope that the clear fundraising advantage will "scare away any potential challengers." City Councilman, city finance and budget committee chair and former police chief Bernard C. Parks (R) the and former Assemblyman Bob Hertzberg (D) are thought to be seriously considering running against Hahn, a centrist Democrat, for mayor. Lawyer Walter Moore who is running for mayor and is not seen as a serious candidate, has raised just over $1,000 thus far. Larry Berg, retired director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, said that Hahn early fundraising is surmountable if potential candidates entered the race soon.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:12 AM |

Sunday, January 25, 2004

New Hampshire Democrat primary

A whole bunch of polls -- too many to list -- show Senator John Kerry as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic primary on Tuesday. Generally Howard Dean is way behind and Wesley Clark is sinking.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:20 PM |

Oklahoma Senate 2004

According to Robert Novak (scroll down), former Rep. Tom Coburn is considering jumping into the GOP race to replace retiring Senator Don Nickles. Coburn, who served six years in Congress and left after self-term limiting himself, is a social conservative who headed President Bush's AIDS Council. The GOP are worried that Democratic Rep. Brad Carson could win the seat with the Republican frontrunner, former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphrey seemingly out-of-touch "with the grassroots." Also running for the GOP nomination is state Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM |

Louisiana Congress 2004

With Rep. David Vitter (R) running for the Senate to replace Senator John Breaux (D), former state House Rep. and Klansman David Duke is pondering a run to Vitter's seat. Duke, who lost statewide races in 1990 (Senate) and 1991 (Governor), is considering running for Congress again once he is released from prison having served half his two year sentence after pleading guilty to mail and tax fraud. Duke has run for but finished third in primary for Vitter's seat before.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:44 PM |

Saturday, January 24, 2004

Endorsement watch

Retiring South Carolina Senator Fritz Hollings (D) has endorsed Senator John Kerry (MA). This is seen as a blow to Senator John Edwards, who was born in South Carolina and represents neighbouring North Carolina. Hollings said of Kerry, "The only fellow I know who really has the courage and the experience in every regard to really take President Bush on is Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts." In a poll of South Carolina Democrats last month, Kerry had but 3% support and he hasn't visited the state since September. Hollings said he has been pushing Kerry to run for four years now. Asked about Edwards, Hollings said, "he doesn't have near the experience to go all the way and get the White House from Bush." South Carolina will be the most closely watched of the seven states having primaries or caucuses on February 3 because, as the media relentless reminds us, it is the first state to have a significant black vote.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:06 AM |

Friday, January 23, 2004

Oklahoma Democratic primary

According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted January 23 for KFOR-TV, retired General Wesley Clark has the support of 32% certain Democratic voters. He is followed by Senator John Edwards (23%), Senator John Kerry (17%), Howard Dean (10%) and Senator Joseph Lieberman (8%), others (7%) and undecided (5%). According to previous polls in the state, Dean was in second and gaining on Clark.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:53 PM |

Washington Governor 2004

Dr. Federico Cruz, director of the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department, has dropped out of the race to become the Republican gubernatorial candidate and endorsed state Senator Dino Rossi. GOP officials hope the lack of contentious primary battle will bring Hispanic voters to Rossi in the general election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:50 PM |

New York Senator 2006

According to a Marist College Institute for Public Opinion survey, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Senator Hillary Clinton 50%-45% in a hypothetical matchup. In a matchup Clinton and Governor George Pataki are tied at 46%. Clinton is polling poorly against the two Republicans despite a record high approval rating of 55%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:44 PM |

New York Governor 2006

According to a Marist College Institute for Public Opinion survey, Senator Charles Schumer would beat Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in a Democratic primary for governor but that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) would beat either of them in a general election contest. Both Schumer and Spitzer are rumoured to be interested in running for governor in 2006 although the conventional wisdom had it that Spitzer was the frontrunner. The Marist poll, however, had Schumer winning a head-to-head contest 53%-29% with 17% undecided. Marist polling director Lee Miringoff stated the obvious: "What this suggests is that Schumer's general popularity with Democrats is outdoing Spitzer's popularity based on his role as attorney general." Miringoff added that he thinks the polling results illustrate "a preference for Schumer rather than a rejection of Spitzer."
Giuliani, thought to be interested in running for statewide office in '06, beat Schumer 52%-35% and Spitzer by similar numbers, 53%-32%. If incumbent three-term Governor George Pataki (R) ran for re-election, the poll indicates he would be in a close race with Schumer (44%-43%) and would beat Spitzer 45%-34%. While Pataki's approval numbers are under 50%, they are up since the September Marist poll, rising from 40% to 46%. His disapproval rating is 49%.
The poll of 617 registered voters was conducted January 6-7.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:39 PM |

Thursday, January 22, 2004

Florida Senate 2004

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R, FL) has endorsed former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, a Cuban-American who has the support of the White House, in his quest for the U.S. Senate. Ros-Lehtinen's Cuban-American colleagues in the House have backed former Rep. Bill McCollum, who is making a second bid for the US Senate. In 2000, he was the Republican nominee against Democrat Ben Nelson. Ros-Lehtinen said ''Mel is a better fit than any of the other candidates ... I consider Bill [McCollum] a wonderful Republican, but I don't think he's got the bipartisan, reach-across-the-aisle appeal that Mel has.''
The endorsement is the latest in the crowded Florida Senate primary campaigns. Last week, Democrat and former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor was endorsed by the state's largest teacher's union, the Florida Education Association. The FEA has yet to endorse a candidate for the Republican nomination.
Castor faces Rep. Peter Deutsch of Lauderhill and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas for her party's nomination. Martinez faces McCollum, state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Senator Daniel Webster, Judicial Watch founder and lawyer attorney Larry Klayman and former US New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith for the GOP nod.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:54 PM |

New Hampshire Democratic primary

On the heels of his upset victory in Iowa, Senator John Kerry is now leading polls in New Hampshire where the primary is held next Tuesday. According to the lastest Zogby International tracking poll (its first post-Iowa poll), Kerry leads Howard Dean 27%-24% with Wesley Clark behind at 15%, Senator John Edwards (8%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (6%) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%). The American Research Group tracking poll has Kerry with a larger lead and Dean falling to third: Kerry (31%), Clark (20%), Dean (18%), Edwards (11%), Lieberman (7%), Kucinich (1%) and 12% undecided.
According to the WMUR-TV tracking poll (conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre, January 19-21), Kerry leads Dean 30%-25%, followed by Clark at 19%. Edwards was unable to break double digits with just 8% and Lieberman had 7%. The last pre-Iowa WMUR-TV poll had Dean leading Kerry 33%-24%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:54 PM |

Wednesday, January 21, 2004

Battleground Missouri

With Rep. Dick Gephardt out of the race, Missouri's 88 delegates become the most up-for-grabs prize on February 3. Both Howard Dean and Wesley Clark have volunteer organizations on the ground there and they are probably the best positioned to take the state. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is the only candidate to have already stopped in the state and that was in October. But Senator John Edwards doesn't have any organization on the ground there. Still, St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay (D) predicts the race will be among Dean, Edwards and Senator John Kerry. The St. Louis Dispatch says that with time running out (and New Hampshire next week and six other states holding primaries and caucuses February 3), there are only two ways to garner support: TV advertising and high profile endorsements. Governor Bob Holden admits hearing from Clark but was non-committal. The biggest endorsement would be from Gephardt himself. While the former candidate will still be on the ballot, Gephardt is urging supporters to vote for one of the remaining official candidates. Thus far he has not indicated a preference for any of his former rivals.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:39 PM |

Carol Moseley Braun's payoff

Chicago Tribune Washington bureau chief Lynn Sweet notes the deal that got former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun to drop out of the race and endorse Howard Dean: "Braun will campaign for Dean three days of the week, with the Dean campaign picking up her travel expenses. Braun will become a Dean campaign consultant and will be paid about $20,000. Up to three of Braun's staffers, including [former National Organization of Women President Patricia) Ireland, will be hired by the Dean campaign. In the short term, Braun will head to New Hampshire and South Carolina for the Dean campaign. A large number of Democratic voters in South Carolina, which holds its primary Feb. 3, are African-American."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:18 PM |

Lieberman will stay in race after New Hampshire

The Manchester Union Leader reports that Senator Joseph Lieberman says he will remain in the race even if he finishes worse than third in New Hampshire. Still, he predicted that the Granite State would produce a surprising result much as Iowa did but stopped short of predicting where he would finish. Speaking before students at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, Lieberman said he will be the toughest Democrat for President Bush to beat because "They can’t say I’ve flip-flopped . . . they can’t say I’m weak on defense . . . they can’t say I’m a big spender . . . they can’t say I’m weak on values."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:14 PM |

Tuesday, January 20, 2004

New Hampshire Democratic primary

Latest American Research Group daily tracking poll (January 17-19) of likely NH primary voters, conducted before the Iowa caucus: Howard Dean 28%, Senator John Kerry 20%, retired General Wesley Clark 19%, Senator John Edwards 8%, Senator Joseph Lieberman 7%, Rep. Dick Gephardt 3% and Rep. Dennis Kucinich 2%. However, a new WMUR-TV tracking poll found the same order but with a more impressive showing for Dean and Kerry farther ahead of Clark: Dean 33%, Kerry 24%, Clark 18%, Edwards 8%, Lieberman 5%, and Kucinich 3%. This poll was conducted before the Iowa caucus.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:46 PM |

Monday, January 19, 2004

Republican presidential nomination 2008

Its never too early. Kate O'Beirne reports in The Corner that "Governor Bill Owens, Senator Bill Frist, and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani are all in Iowa today. Is the absent Senator Chuck Hagel counting on being from next-door neighbor Nebraska?" Where's Jeb?

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:19 PM |

Endorsement watch

Former Senator Max Cleland (D, GA) campaigned with Senator John Kerry in Iowa in the closing days. It was Cleland's third visit to the state, where he railed against "the Bush crowd that never went to war," whom, he said, sent US troops to Iraq to "complete Daddy's war."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:10 PM |

Iowa caucus

Senator John Kerry won a decisive victory in the Hawkeye State with almost 38%, followed by Senator John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (11%) and no one else garnering more than 2%. CNN and MSNBC are both reporting Gephardt will officially drop out of the race on Tuesday. For county-by-county voting, chech here.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:07 PM |

If its not him, Dean hopes Kerry wins Iowa

An advisor to Howard Dean told the Los Angeles Times that if the former Vermont governor does not win Iowa, the campaign would like to see Senator John Kerry take it. The thinking goes like this: Wesley Clark is the greatest threat to Dean for the Democratic nomination because he has more money and a higher profile than any of the other candidates (except Dean), Clark is surging in New Hampshire, a Kerry victory in Iowa could help him regain second in the Granite state and hurt the overall Clark effort.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:47 AM |

Iowa caucus today

Recent polls show this is a four-way race. Paulitics doubts that Senator John Edwards has the organization to translate good polling numbers into a good caucus result. Also, it seems unlikely Edwards truly inspires support in the way a Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt or even John Kerry can. Dean comes out on top because he is well-organized, has substantial out-of-state help and everyone who ever checked his website will get an email reminding them to go to the polls today. So here is my prediction:
Howard Dean - 30
Dick Gephardt - 23%
John Kerry - 22%
John Edwards - 17%
Dennis Kucinich - 4%
Wesley Clark - 2%
Joseph Lieberman - less than 1%
These results would be: 1) Good news for Dean considering he comes out significantly ahead of what the polls indicated in recent days and 30% in a multi-canidate race is impressive. 2) A disaster for Gephardt and he will likely drop out of the contest before the end of the week (and thus before the New Hampshire primary). He may or may not endorse someone immediately, but his supporters will probably be divided mostly between Dean, Clark and Kerry regardless of who he backs. 3) Good news for Kerry because he will get some attention. Better than expected showing in Iowa could negate the effect of a worse than expected in New Hampshire, allowing him to fight the February 2 primaries and caucuses. 4) Neutral for Edwards. One recent poll had him in second place, but the expectations game hadn't set in yet, so Edwards dodges a bullet there. But he must deliver in the high teens in New Hampshire or his campaign is seriously damaged.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:34 AM |

New Mexico Democratic caucus

According to an Albuquerque Journal-sponsored Research and Polling Inc. survey of likely Democratic voters, Howard Dean holds a narrow lead in New Mexico. Dean has 18% support of likely caucus-goers compared to 16% for Clark. Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman are tied at 8% each, Rep. Dick Gephardt follwed with 7%, Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 6% and Senator John Edwards at 4%. An eighth candidate, New York business consultant Fern Penna, will also appear on the ballot but he did not register on the poll. More than one-third (34%) of respndents were still undecided. Dean has a larger lead among party activists (who are more likely to vote), besting Clark 25%-21%, followed by Edwards at 10%. Lieberman's support falls to 2% among activists.
The poll, conducted January 12-15, sampled only Democrats who had voted in the last two primary and general elections. Candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote will win at least one of the 26 of New Mexico's 37 delegates being apportioned by the caucus. With low voter turnout, Dean is expected to do better because of the slightly larger lead he has among party activists.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:19 AM |

California Democratic primary

According to the most recent Field Poll, the March 2 Democratic primary is shaping up to be a two-man race between Howard Dean and retired General Wesley Clark, with Dean leading among likely primary voters 25%-20%. Far behind is Senator Joseph Lieberman (12%), Senator John Kerry (7%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (6%) and Senator John Edwards, Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis Kucinich tied at 3%. Importantly, Clark is most often cited as the second choices of Dean voters and vice versa. In a statement of the obvious, Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said the early caucuses and primaries will affect the March 2 California primary by winnowing down the candidates and providing others with momentum.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:08 AM |

Sunday, January 18, 2004

Kansas Senator 2004

The Democrats have finally found a challenger to Senator Sam Brownback, a conservative Republican who is considered a shoe-in in his re-election bid this November. Joan Ruff, a senior executive in human resources and strategic planning for Zurich Financial Services and lawyer, is the only Democratic candidate to step forward thus far. Ruff said she wants to change the way Washington does business. She listed among her priorities protecting abortion-rights but refused to say if she supported Bush's tax cuts or how she would have voted on the Iraq war saying that she didn't have all the information.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:33 PM |

Indiana Governor 2004

According to an Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 3) Hoosier Poll the Democratic incumbent holds a solid lead over his likely GOP challenger. Governor Joe
Kernan leads Republican Mitch Daniels 49%-36% with 11% undecided and 4% saying they will vote for someone else. Daniels a former director of President Bush's Office of Management and Budget must still beat his GOP primary opponent, conservative activist Eric Miller. Nearly half of all respondents say the don't have an opinion of Daniels and nearly two-thirds say they know little about Miller. Still, Daniels is not expected to have much difficulty in dispatching his opponent in the May 4 primary.
While Kernan holds a significant lead over Daniels, the Poll, conducted by Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., found that nearly half (48%) of respondents say the state is going in the wrong direction (compared to just 40% who say it is on the right track). Furthermore, Kernans favourable/unfavourable ratings are 33%/34%. Republicans also hope that having President Bush on the ticket will help them in November; however, popular Democratic Senator (and former governor) Evan Bayh is also running for re-election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:11 PM |

Saturday, January 17, 2004

Endorsement watch

Singer Carole King supports Senator John Kerry. She sang a concert for his benefit in New Hampshire and said "just about every vote and just about every position lined up with my core Democratic values." They met when King testifed before Congress on environmental issues.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:27 PM |

South Carolina Democratic primary

The Columbia State reports that according to a recent Zogby International poll, as many as 15% of Democratic primary voters in the state on February 2 could be Republicans. While both parties dismiss the idea of such crossover voting, the paper talked to a number of Republican supporters who say they are going to vote for Howard Dean hoping to help nominate what is perceived to be an easy opponent for President George W. Bush in November. However several indicated they will support the candidate closest to their views -- Senator Joseph Lieberman (CT).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:24 PM |

South Carolina Senate 2004

Former one-term Governor David Beasley announced this week that he will seek the Republican Senate nomination, saying "This is a race we cannot afford to lose." The eventual GOP winner will likely face state education superintendent Inez Tenenbaum (D) in the race to replace Senator Fritz Hollings (D). GOP political consultant Richard Quinn conducted a poll last year that purported to show that only Beasley could beat Tenenbaum, the candidate who received the most statewide votes in 2002. Beasley, who served as governor from 1994-1998 before being unseated following a flap over the Confederate flag (he opposed it), says that the GOP cannot lose South Carolina or it risks losing control of the Senate. SC is one of five southern states in which incumbent Democratic senators are not seeking re-election.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:18 PM |

Iowa Democratic primary

The two candidates leading in Iowa last week -- Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt -- have fallen to third and fouth respectively according to an Iowa Poll reported by the Des Moines Register. Senator John Kerry (MA) leads with 26%, followed by Senator John Edwards (NC) at 24%, Dean with 20% and Gephardt at 18%. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has 3% followed by three candidates not contesting the state: retired General Wesley Clark (2%) and Senator Joseph Lieberman and Al Sharpton (tied at 1% each). Half of all respondents say they could still change their mind making this caucus extremely unpredictable.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:09 PM |

California Senate 2004

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has endorsed former California Secretary of State Bill Jones in the GOP Senate primary. Jones is considered the front-runner in the ten person March primary and if he wins he will face Democrat Barbara Boxer, one of the most liberal senators. The GOP hope that the popularity of new Governor Schwarzenegger will help lift them to victory in November. The Republicans, if they nominate Jones, will also have a pro-choice Republican challenger against Boxer for the first time; still, the Boxer campaign has already labeled the Republicans too far right for California.
In the most recent Field poll of Republican and independent voters likely to take part in the primary, Jones leads with 28% followed by former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marín and former Los Altos Hills Mayor Toni Casey (tied with 6%) and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian (3%). 57% were undecided. In head-to-head matchups with the four leading candidates, Boxer leads with between 13% and 23%. Boxer also has a huge fundraising advantage, collecting $8.8 million thus far with about $5 million in the bank.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:53 PM |

Edwards may be victim of his own success

The New Republic's Noam Scheiber writes on his political blog that Senator John Edwards may not be able to translate his surge in the polls in Iowa into electoral success because he doesn't have the organization in the state to deliver caucus votes. As a result, Scheiber says, Edwards' high polling may doom him if he fails to reach the now inflated expectations. He says "If, after all the hype, Edwards ends up with something like 8 percent of the vote, he's going to look like, well, a lot of hype."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 12:28 AM |

Friday, January 16, 2004

Florida Senate 2004

Rep. Katherine Harris (R) announced today she will not seek the Republican Senate nomination to replace retiring Senator Bob Graham (D). Harris is intensely popular among Republicans but hated among Democrats for her role in the protracted Florida recount of 2000. Harris was rumoured to be under pressure by pro-White House forces not to run as not to energize the Democratic base for the November election and encouraging the Left to refight the 2000 Florida campaign. After weeks of deliberation and polls showing her the easy frontrunner for the GOP nomination, Harris is reported to be looking at 2006 for either a gubernatorial run (Republican Governor Jeb Bush will not be running again) or challenging Senator Ben Nelson (D). Last month Harris said she preferred to run for Senate in an open race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:25 PM |

Delaware Democratic primary

According to a SurveyUSA poll (scroll down) of 396 certain voters for the February 3 Delaware primary Howard Dean holds a solid lead over retired General Wesley Clark 27%-18% followed by civil rights activist Al Sharpton (13%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (11%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (10%), Senator John Kerry (7%), Senator John Edwards (6%), others (5%) and undecided
(3%).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:17 PM |

Iowa Democratic caucus

The Des Moines Register reports on two polls that show the Iowa caucus, which is held January 19, is turning into a tight four-way race despite appearing to be between Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO) as recently as two weeks ago. However, senators John Kerry (MA) and John Edwards (NC) joined the leaders. The latest Zogby International daily tracking poll showed Kerry leading with 22%, followed by Dean and Gephardt at 21% each and Edwards at 17%. A poll released yesterday by KCCI News Channel 8 (Des Moines) had Dean just leading with 22% followed by Kerry (21%) and Gephardt and Edwards tied at 18% apiece.
Furthermore, a SurveyUSA poll released today shows the four candidates seperated by just 4% and Dean leading. Of 428 certain caucus voters, Dean has 24%, Edwards 22%, Kerry 21% and Gephardt 20%. Just 3% were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:02 PM |

Thursday, January 15, 2004

Washington Senate 2004

According to a poll conducted for Emily's List, a pro-abortion lobbying group, by the Mellman Group, Washington Senator Patty Murray (D) leads likely Republican challenger Rep. George Nethercutt 48%-26% with one in four respondents undecided. It is the first poll for this Senate contest and while Murray has fallen under the coveted 50% benchmark incumbents like to clear in early polls, the 22-point lead is surely comforting. The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted in November but not released until January 12.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:40 PM |

Missouri Governor 2004

On Wednesday, Missouri Secretary of State Matt Blunt (R) made official his candidacy for governor. The son of House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, the 33-year-old who was first elected to the Missouri House in 1998 before becoming the secretary of state, thus far faces no Republican challengers. He hopes to unseat unpopular and embattled Governor Bob Holden (D) who faces a primary challenge from state Auditor Claire McCaskill.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:29 AM |

Illinois polling numbers

A Chicago Tribune/WGN sponsored poll of 528 Illinois registered voters likely to vote in the March 16 Democratic primary found that nearly a majority of respondents would support Illinois-born New York Senator Hillary Clinton to become the Democratic presidential candidate if she were running. With Clinton in the race she would lead 47% over Howard Dean (12%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (5%) and retired General Wesley Clark (5%). The rest of the field shared 10% and 20% were undecided. But Clinton is not running and the race breaks down this way without her: Dean 24%, Gephardt 12%, Clark 10%, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (who is dropping out of the race and who is expected to endorse Dean later today) 9%, Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman tied at 5%, Senator John Edwards 2% and Rep. Dennis Kucinich and civil rights activist and preacher Al Sharpton tied at 1%. Nearly 3 in 10 -- 28% -- are undecided about whom they will support in the March 16 primary.
In a poll of 700 likely general election voters, Bush was found to have negatives on most issues -- the economy, the handling of the war -- but that public perception of him has improved since similar polls conducted in October and that he now has a 49% approval rating in the state. Bush lost Illinois to Gore by 12 points in 2000 and the state is thought to have become more Democratic since. However, despite 48% of respondents not wanting him re-elected and just 40% wanting him to remain in the White House, in a head to head match against Dean, Bush wins 46%-40%. Among independents, Bush leads 45%-34%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 1:09 AM |

Wednesday, January 14, 2004

First Democrat to drop out

The Associated Press is just reporting that former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun is dropping out of the Democratic presidential nominating contest and is endorsing former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. She is expected to formally announce she is backing Dean in Iowa on Thursday. The AP reported "Braun never broke out of single digits in national surveys, didn't qualify for several state ballots and ran up thousand of dollars in campaign debt. Even her own campaign manager, Patricia Ireland, had said publicly there was no way Braun could win the nomination." It concluded that the former senator made "no impact" on the campaign.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:52 PM |

New Hampshire Democratic primary

A Boston Herald poll of 408 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters (January 11-12) conducted by RKM Research and Communications found that retired General Wesley Clark has significantly narrowed the gap between himself and Howard Dean to within what the paper calls "striking distance." Dean has 29% compared to Clark's 20%. Senator John Kerry has 15% (a slight increase compared to recent American Research Group tracking polls), Senator Joseph Lieberman has 7% and Senator John Edwards is just behind with 5%. Nearly one-in-five (19%) remain undecided. Pollster R. Kelly Myers said "Clark is the one candidate that really seems to have some momentum now," and he credited the former general's decision to skip the Iowa caucus and focus on New Hampshire. "Clark's strategy seems to be paying off."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:35 PM |

Endorsement watch

Former South Carolina Governor Robert McNair has endorsed Rep. Dick Gephardt saying that the Missouri Congressman's "His hard stance against bad trade initiatives, which take jobs out of our state and nation, and his ongoing commitment to find a way to provide health care for every American, are just two of his hallmarks." McNair was governor of the state from 1965 to 1971. Gephardt said McNair's endorsement will "bring a real boost" to his campaign. South Carolina is one of seven states holding a primary or caucus on February 2, one week after New Hampshire's primary. Gephardt is joined by senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman in the second tier of candidates in South Carolina far behind Howard Dean, Senator John Edwards, retired General Wesley Clark and black preacher Al Sharpton.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:33 PM |

Tuesday, January 13, 2004

New York polls

Howard Dean leads the Democratic pack in New York state. According to the Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion survey of 544 Democrats (January 6-7), Dean has 26% compared to Senator Joseph Lieberman's 12% and retired General Wesley Clark's 10%. None of the other candidates scored in double digits and 26% were undecided.
In some good news for President George W. Bush, the Marist poll of 617 registered voters found that 34% would definitely support Bush in November compared to 36% who definitely will not and 30% who were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:11 PM |

It's kind of an endorsement

While Howad Dean's aides are downplaying any chance of an endorsement, former President Jimmy Carter has announced he will campaign with Dean at several Georgia churches one day before the January 19 Iowa caucus. According to the Associated Press story, "Carter has said he will not express any preference about who should be the nominee," although Carter admits to seeing a himself in the insurgency candidacy of Dean. Both were relative unknowns with nothing more than a resume with governor at the top of it.
The wire story also said that being seen with Carter could rejuvenate Dean's flagging campaign, especially in the South.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:06 PM |

Washington DC primary

As of 10:30 pm, Al Sharpton is winning the meaningless Washington DC primary by trailing Howard Dean 43%-35%. Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun trails with 12% followed by Rep. Dennis Kucinich (8%) and a bunch of minor candidates with tied at 1% with Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr. leading that particular pack. For the latest results, check here.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:39 PM |

Arizona Democratic primary

According to a new Eyewitness News 4/Arizona Daily Star poll conducted by SurveyUSA, retired General Wesley Clark has captured the lead in Arizona, which is among seven states holding a primary or caucus on February 2. Clark leads Howard Dean 39%-32%. An American Research Group poll conducted in late December had Dean leading Clark 26%-15%. According to the latest poll the rest of the field trails in single digits with Senator Joseph Lieberman at 8%, Senator John Kerry 5%, Rep. Dick Gephardt 4% and 7% supporting "other." SurveyUSA polled 412 respondents who said there were "certain" to vote in the Arizona primary.
The Daily Star characterized the state as "a priority for Clark" noting that the has spent a lot of time and money in Arizona and that his son Wesley Clark Jr., opened the Southern Arizona campaign office. Lieberman said the poll indicates support for Clark's resume not his record and that the race is far from over because many are still undecided. The SurveyUSA poll found that just 4% of respondents were undecided. Howard Dean downplayed the poll saying Clark's television advertising blitz is paying off but that Rep. Raul Grijvalva's "tremendous organization" will make Dean "very competitive" in the state.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:26 PM |

New Hampshire Democratic primary

An American Research Group tracking poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters (Democrats and undeclared) has retired General Wesley Clark in second place behind Howard Dean, bumping Senator John Kerry, the early favourite to win the state, into third place. The January 10-12 poll has Dean with 34% followed by Clark (20%), Kerry (11%), Senator Joseph Lieberman (9%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (4%), Edwards (3%) and Kucinich (1%). Nearly 1 in 5 respondents (18%) were still undecided. A January 9-11 ARG tracking poll found Dean leading Clark 36%-19% followed by Kerry and Lieberman tied at 10%.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:04 PM |

Endorsement watch

While Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has said he remain neutral in the Democratic primary, his wife, Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack has endorsed Senator John Kerry (MA). Vilsack said she admired Kerry's relationships with his daughter and wife. She also said that "I feel like Iowans have endorsed Senator Kerry and I'm following their decision instead of the other way around." Kerry is running third in most recent statewide polls.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:30 PM |

Colorado Senate 2004

Former senator Gary Hart is still thinking about running for the Democratic Senate nomination. The USA Today reports that this is the first time that Hart has talked publicly about a possible return to politics. Democrats are interested in having Hart, who has instant name recognition, challenge Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R), whom they consider vulnerable.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:18 PM |

Nebraska Congress 2004

Rep. Doug Bereuter (R) is retiring from Congress leaving a vacancy in the 1st Congressional District (eastern Nebraska) for the first time in two decades. The Democrats are hoping to pick up the seat that has been held by Republicans since 1964 but were dealt a severe blow when state Senator Chris Beutler (D) took himself out of the race. Others interested in the Democratic nomination include state Senator Matt Connealy, lawyer Janet Stewart and businessman Phil Chase.
Curt Bloom, speaker of Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature, has been endorsed by Bereuter in the GOP primary where he will probably face Lt. Governor Dave Heineman and perhaps former Lt. Governor Dave Maurstad, who is now a regional director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:54 PM |

Rigging the expectations game

There is a fair amount of spin by candidates as they posture and position themselves in anticipation of how the conventional wisdom (read: the punditocracy) says they ought to perform. But Rev. Al Sharpton has taken it to new heights for today's non delegate-selecting Washington DC primary. (That is, other than in terms of publicity, the primary is meaningless.) Only four candidates are contesting the primary, designed to give DC (read: black people) some influence in the candidate selection process: Sharpton, Howard Dean, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun and Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Sharpton is setting the bar unusually low for himself by puffing up Dean. Sharpton says "If he can't beat me four- or five- to one here, and we make it competitive, it's a victory ... It's just him against us. If this is not a complete rollover, then he should be very concerned." So if Dean beats Sharpton 55%-35% with the others sharing the rest, Sharpton will claim victory. If Dean could replicate such defeats in other states, he'll be the Democratic presidential nominee by early March.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:17 PM |

Democrats go fishing for votes

The Democratic Party of Michigan is allowing 17-year-olds to vote in this year's caucus if they turn 18 before the November 2 election date. They are not allowed to vote online -- the state's Democrats are experimenting with internet voting this year -- but the party says it will be an excellent way to introduce youth to the democratic process (or is it the Democratic process).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 7:01 AM |

Monday, January 12, 2004

Paulitics will return

Tuesday January 13.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:46 PM |

Sunday, January 11, 2004

Iowa and after

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney "reports" Rep. Dick Gephardt's own aides are admitting that a failure to win the Iowa caucus would surely end his bid to become the Democratic presidential candidate. Gephardt, from neighbouring Missouri, won Iowa in 1988 and was always considered the favourite to win it again in 2004. However, even if he wins Missouri, especially if he just scrapes by Howard Dean, who has led in every recent poll in the state, it is thought that Gephardt will have trouble raising money to continue his campaign. He had the same problem in '88.
To make matters worse for Gephardt, Nagourney says that Senator John Kerry's (MA) and Senator John Edwards' (NC) resurgent campaigns are taking away votes from the front-runners, especially Gephardt. Both Kerry and Edwards say a second or third place finish in Iowa would give their campaign a much-needed boost. Edwards, Nagourney says, is evidently taking more votes away from Gephardt, which will both improve the senator's numbers and hurt the former House Minority Leader's chances of winning the state. The importance of the second-tier candidates pulling votes from Gephardt was reinforced by Senator Tom Harkin's (IA) praise of Edwards. Harkin, who endorsed Dean earlier this week, was seen trying to bolster Edwards by praising him in order to siphon votes from Gephardt.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:03 PM |

Veep watch

Robert Novak reports in his column today (scroll down to the fourth item) that Senator John Edwards (NC) thought there was a 70% likelihood that he would have been the vice presidential candidate for the Democrats if he had not run for the presidential nomination. The theory, widely accepted by those who follow the conventional wisdom, is that the Democrats need 1) to balance the ticket regionally and 2) the Democrats do best when they have a southerner on the ticket. The last two Democratic presidents were from the South and Tennessee's Al Gore came close to winning the presidency in 2000. That said, Massachuetts Governor Michael Dukakis lost in 1988 with Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas on the ticket. Back to 2004: Now that he is campaigning for the presidency, Edwards thinks that his chances of being picked for the vice presidential slot have been reduced.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:58 AM |

Des Moines Register endorses Edwards

The Des Moines Register, the largest and most influential newspaper in Iowa, endorsed Senator John Edwards (NC) for the Democratic presidential nomination eight days before the state holds its first-in-the-nation caucus. The paper's editorial said that initially they were going to dismiss Edwards as a serious candidate, a first-term senator whose rivals had more experience. Saying that several other candidates appeared to be better, mostly due to their experience, the paper found that after a year of debating the issues and learning more about the person, Edwards is "a cut above the others." The Register says "Howard Dean's call to 'take our country back' is the rallying cry" of the Democratic Party but while "Dean has the slogan, but it is Edwards who most eloquently and believably expresses this point of view, with his trial-lawyer skill for distilling arguments into compelling language that moves a jury of ordinary people." It says that Edwards, like the rest of the candidates, is critical of Bush but for the North Carolina senator, it is less personal. Furthermore, Edwards "tends to conduct positive, optimistic campaigns." Next Fall, the Register says, an Edwards-Bush campaign would present the voters with two visions of the nation with two evenly matched candidates who share many of the same qualities -- "attractive, likable, energetic." On January 19, we'll see how influential the Register truly is in Iowa's politics.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 9:54 AM |

Saturday, January 10, 2004

Senator health watch

Senator Max Baucus (D, MT) had emergency surgery to relieve swelling around the brain. He caused injury to his head in a fall last November and doctors left the impression such injuries and reparative surgery is normal and routine.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:20 AM |

Tennessee Democratic primary

A USA Survey poll of 535 "certain voters" found a neck-and-neck race for the Democratic presidential nomination in Al Gore's home state. Retired General Wesley Clark and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean have 27% and 26% support respectively, followed by Senator Joseph Lieberman (9%), Rep. Dick Gephardt (8%), Senator John Edwards (6%), Senator John Kerry (4%), others (13%) and undecided (6%). Clark is obviously the unDean in Tennessee.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 3:00 AM |

Colorado Senate 2004

Already declared Democratic Senate candidate Mike Miles met with former Senator Gary Hart, who is considering taking another stab at the Senate, at a Denver Starbucks to try to convince him not to run. Miles said that he was himself "a candidate with substance" and that a possible Hart candidacy looming over the political landscape made raising money extremely difficult. Colorado Democratic Party chairman Chris Gates said that Hart made no decision, there was "not a heavy moment" and that they just "chat[ted] with each other."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:37 AM |

Iowa Democratic primary

A NewsChannel 8 poll conducted by Research 2000 January 5-7 found that Howard Dean remains at the front-runner. He had the support of 29% of the 404 likely Iowa caucus voters surveyed compared to Rep. Dick Gephardt's (MO) 25% and Senator John Kerry's (MA) 18%. The rest of the field: Senator John Edwards (NC) has 8%, retired General Wesley Clark (3%), and Connecticut Senator Joseph and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH) tied at 2%. Neither Clark nor Lieberman are contesting the Iowa caucus.
However, according to a USA Survey poll of 612 likely caucus goers released January 8, the order was the same but with significantly different numbers. Dean was supported by 29% of the respondents with Gephardt just ahead of Kerry 22%-21% and Edwards right behind at 17%. The others garnered 8% and just 3% were undecided.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:30 AM |

Presidential polls

A Fox News Channel-sponsored Opinion Dynamics Corporation poll found that President George W. Bush leads all his likely Democratic opponents by 20-plus points. When matched against the various Democrats in the January 7-9 poll, Bush leads Howard Dean (54%-33%), Wesley Clark (52%-32%), Rep Dick Gephardt (56%-30%) and Senator John Kerry (54%-32%). Notice that Dean, the candidate for whom Republicans are supposedly salivating for the chance to face next November, does better than either Gephardt or Kerry and only matches up against Bush one point worse than Clark.
The poll of 900 respondents also found the majority of Americans approve of Bush (58% approval, 31% disapproval), his handling of terrorism (67%-24%), the war in Iraq (57%-35%) and the economy (50%-42%) -- the last results being an almost exact reversal of the polling responses from a November ODC poll. Also, by a nearly three-to-one margin, respondents either strongly or somewhat liked Bush compared to those who disliked him (63%-20%).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:19 AM |

New York primary

Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun is not in a New York state of mind (scroll down to second story). She will not be on the ballot for the March 2 presidential primary, presumably because they could not collect the required 5,000 Democratic member signatures to qualify. Braun's campaign manager Patricia Ireland, formerly president of NOW, explained "We are, what shall we say, a low-budget, independent campaign in the Democratic primaries ... We really have not been able to cover all the states we would have preferred." Of course, there is a very good chance Braun will not be contesting any states by the March 2 primaries as she is consistently polling 1-3% in most states.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 2:01 AM |

Friday, January 09, 2004

Endorsement watch

The Des Moines Register reports that Senator Tom Harkin (D, IA) has endorsed Howard Dean for president, saying that he is the "kind of plain-spoken Democrat we need." The endorsement comes 10 days before the January 19 caucus, giving Dean a major boost in his effort to beat Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), who was expected to win the caucus until Dean pulled even in the state polls in early Fall. Harkin's state-wide organization will help the get-out-the-vote efforts for Dean in what polls indicate is a close race.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:57 PM |

Texas Congress 2004

Rep. Jim Turner (D, TX) will not seek re-election because of a perceived disadvantage in running in the re-drawn congressional district where he would probably face Rep. Joe Barton (R). Turner, a four-term congressman, was re-elected in 2002 with 61% but redistricting seems to strongly favour the Republicans. He said in a press release, "I have no realistic opportunity to seek re-election to Congress." A spokesman for Turner said he is looking at running for governor or senator in 2006.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:54 PM |

Democratic presidential nomination 2008

The Washington Times reports that former vice president and failed 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore has not ruled out a run in 2008. That "news" report is based on 1) the fact that Gore has never ruled out running for the presidency in 2008 and 2) the fact that Gore had a mass mailing of Christmas cards to Democratic supporters in New Hampshire. Jim Demers, a former Gore strategist in New Hampshire who is now supporting Rep. Dick Gephardt said "This was a mass-produced Christmas card, with a picture of his family on the front, that a lot of people here received ... I think that any people who receive these cards would conclude that he is keeping his options open in the event that George Bush wins the election."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:48 PM |

Thursday, January 08, 2004

Colorado Senate 2004

The Denver Post reports that Democrat Gary Hart, a former Colorado Senator and 1984 and 1988 candidate for the party's presidential nomination, is considering running for his party's senate nomination this year. Last Fall, Hart said he would not seek the nomination if Rep. Mark Udall entered the race but over the Christmas break Udall announced he would seek re-election rather than challenge Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R). Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said that "Hart has a genuine interest in the race" and that he would be a good candidate because of his "credibility" on homeland security issues. Hart has not indicated when he would announce his decision whether to run but Colorado Democratic Party chairman Chris Gates said his party's field will be set by February. Former Hart chief of staff Tom Hoog is interested in running but will wait to see what his former boss will do. University of Colorado Regent Jim Martin is gaging voter interest in his possible candidacy and state Senator Dan Grossman is likely to run. Two individuals with little political experience -- Mike Miles of Colorado Springs and lawyer Brad Freedberg -- are official candidates as is lawyer and former Republican Larry E. Johnson. The Bronx-born Johnson says the fact that he ran and got 47% of the vote as a Republican in a 1998 congressional race means he should have crossover appeal.
While Democrats have often said they do not believe Campbell will seek re-election and several Republicans have filed papers with the Federal Elections Commission. Dan L. O'Bryant is running for the GOP nomination and Daniel James Barnett is running under the Christian Party banner.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:39 PM |

New Hampshire primary

An American Research Group tracking poll conducted last week in New Hampshire shows retired General Wesley Clark increasing his support by 50% and Howard Dean and Senator John Kerry slipping slightly. Among more than 600 respondents in each of the January 2-4, 3-5, 4-6, 5-7 polls Dean still leads but saw his support drop steadily from 39% to 35%, Clark increase his polling numbers from 12% to 18% and Kerry fall from 14% to 12%. Senator Joseph Lieberman trails at 6-8%, Rep. Dick Gephardt at 6%, Senator John Edwards at 3% and the rest with 1% or less. Between 16% and 17% of the respondent were undecided and roughly three-quarters of each poll's respondents were Democrats.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:15 PM |

Bush rolls in the dough

The New York Times reports that President George W. Bush raised $130.8 million last year for his re-election campaign, including $47 million in the last quarter. The campaign has spent $31 million thus far but still has $99 million in the bank. Because Bush does not have a (real) primary opponent, it is expected to use much of that nearly $100 million on television advertising trumpeting the president's policy accomplishments. The president also seems on pace to exceed the campaign's stated goal of raising $170 million by the end of March.
As of November, nearly $50 million had been raised by 350 top-level (volunteer) fundraisers, known as Pioneers and Rangers. Pioneers raise at least $100,000 each from their network of contacts and friends, Rangers $250,000. During the 2000 campaign, Bush had fewer than 250 Pioneers and Rangers. Including Washington D.C., 44 states have Pioneers and/or Rangers raising money for the re-election campaign with Texas having the most (43) followed by Florida (35), California (34) and New York (27).

Posted by Paul Tuns at 8:14 PM |

Wednesday, January 07, 2004

Florida Senate 2004

The Miami Herald reports that Rep. Katherine Harris is "close" to making a decision about running for the Republican Senate nomination to replace retiring Senator Bob Graham (D). It is thought that the White House would prefer not to have Harris on the ballot in November to avoid re-igniting memories of the long, drawn out recount controversy following the 2000 election. The former state Secretary of State and close friend of Jeb Bush said that the White House has encouraged her to run against Senator Bill Nelson (D) in 2006 but Harris says that given the choice between challenging an incumbent or running for an open seat, she'd take the open seat. The paper reports that after consulting strategists and fundraisers, Harris has determined that running for the Senate next year will not hurt the president; ''I incite far more Republicans to come out than Democrats,'' she said. She is clearly signalling that she wants to run and will likely announce she will sometime next week.
Polls also indicate that she is the clear 20-point front-runner in the GOP primary which will include former federal Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, former US Representative and failed 2000 Senate candidate Bill McCollum, state Senator Daniel Webster, state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd and Judicial Watch founder Larry Klayman.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:28 PM |

Texas's Congressional map

A panel of three federal judges upheld a new congressional map for Texas, the redrawing of which caught national attention in the Summer of 2003 when state Democratic legislators twice prevented passage of legislation by crossing Texas's borders and effectively closing the state House and Senate by preventing a quorum in either body. After losing politically, Democrats and minority groups that favoured "majority minority" congressional districts that are drawn to ensure minority representation or guaranteed Democratic seats took their fight to court. The judicial panel said that the plan did not violate the Constitution of the 1964 Voting Rights Act, although they questioned the wisdom of configuring congressional districts along partisan lines. The decision is expected to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
If the new map is maintained, the redrawing will likely result in a large shift from an evenly split congressional delegation (16-16 following Rep. Ralph Hall's switch last week) to one that favours the Republicans 22-10. State Republican chairwoman Tina Benkiser said of the redrawing: "In 2004, the people of Texas will finally have a congressional delegation that reflects their votes and their views."

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM |

Endorsement watch

Former basketball star and senator Bill Bradley (NJ) endorsed Democratic front-runner Howard Dean yesterday. Bradley, who mounted an unsuccessful challenge against vice president Al Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2000, said Dean's "campaign offers America new hope." In his endorsement, which was formally announced in Iowa, Bradley said Dean has "got to continue to play to that strength [reaching people and raising money on the internet] and get people involved, to be blunt and clear about what he believes and not shave the edges." Bradley also had some advice for the candidate, which he later shared with the Los Angeles Times: "I told him to get at least 7 1/2 or eight hours of sleep at night," as he indicated he was displeased with espying Dean trying to catch up on sleep on their flight from New Hampshire to Iowa. "You don't sleep on planes," Bradley lectured.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 11:03 PM |

New York Senate 2004

The New York Post reports that the GOP has found three possible sacrificial lambs to challenge Senator Charles Schumer (D). The paper labels the potential challengers "Two little-known former Democrats and a defeated Manhattan candidate ... the latest potential long-shot GOP entries to challenge" the incumbent. Gail Hilson of Manhattan, who narrowly lost an Assembly race to Democrat Jonathan Bing in 2002, is being mentioned as a possible candidate, as is state Senator Nancy Larraine Hoffmann, a former Democrat from Syracuse. Erie County Executive Joel Giambra, another former Democrat who has fought with municipal Democrats in the Buffalo area in recent years, is also considering a run.
State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R) described Hoffmann as a "worthy candidate." Giambra is examining the likelihood of sufficient funding considering that Schumer has raised $18 million for the campaign. None of the candidates have run state-wide campaigns and none are likely to beat Schumer. GOP officials concede that while it is unlikely the eventual Republican candidate will win in '04, the raised profile, new contacts and experience may be useful in future campaigns.
Schumer is a leading critic of the Bush administration's judicial appointments. In early 2003, it was rumoured that stalled judicial nominee Manuel Estrada was being wooed by New York Republicans to run, but his name is no longer being mentioned. Other high profile GOP politicians, led by Governor George Pataki, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and national GOP committeewoman Georgette Mosbacher have all said no to a campaign this time around. It is rumoured that White House political guru Karl Rove does not want a strong Republican Senate candidate in New York so that President Bush might better contest the state; a close Senate race, it is thought, would energize the Democratic base and lead to greater Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts.

Posted by Paul Tuns at 10:53 PM |